Lightning and Harvest Timing Guide

Start with the one official fact

The developer tells players to harvest before lightning strikes. That establishes lightning as a harvest-timing risk. It does not establish how often lightning strikes, how much value is lost, whether protection applies, or how quickly value grows.

Use a scenario, not a prediction

The Lightning EV Scenario compares two choices with values you provide:

• harvest now = current crop value × mutation multiplier
• hold if no strike = harvest-now value × growth multiplier
• hold if strike = hold if no strike × (1 - loss fraction × (1 - protection fraction))
• expected hold = (1 - strike probability) × hold if no strike + strike probability × hold if strike

All probabilities and fractions are decimals from 0 to 1. Values use the same currency unit shown in your client. The result is mathematically reproducible, but it is only as representative as your inputs.

A practical observation routine

Record the current value before waiting. Record whether a strike occurred during a clearly defined window. If it did, record the before-and-after value. Repeat under the same conditions and keep build changes separate. A small sample is useful for exploring scenarios, not for claiming the hidden true probability.

Set protection to zero unless you can verify a current protective effect. Do the same for mutation and growth multipliers: enter 1 when you intentionally want a neutral scenario, but do not treat that as a claim about the game.

Decide with risk in view

Expected value is not a guarantee. Two scenarios with the same expected value can have very different worst cases. If losing the current crop would block your next seed purchase, read the seed reserve guide before holding. New players can follow the first safe harvests route to keep a reserve while learning.

The linked creator video can help identify the flow of play. It is never used here to extract numeric odds, payouts, or timing rules, and its exact game version is unknown.